© O Financista. The trend remains negative on the EUR/USD pair at the beginning of a very busy week
Investing.com – The last week has been like the previous placed under the sign of decline for the EUR/USD pair, with a new low annual 1,1113 Friday.
Recall that the Euro-Dollar has mainly suffered from the strength of the Dollar, a firm that has been called into question on Friday with a GDP of US disappointing.
The growth had actually exceeded the consensus, but the inflation figures, GDP-linked (consumer price index of the GDP) were found to be very disappointing.
In addition, the structure of growth in the US in Q4, which is largely based on the inventories and trade, suggests that a catch-up negative is to be expected for the next quarter.
In the end, despite a growth of 3.2% in Q1 2019, compared to 2.3% in advance, the Dollar had fallen in the face of the publication of Friday, allowing EUR/USD to regain some ground.
Also note that the rating agency S&P confirmed on Friday that the debt rating of Italy to BBB with a negative outlook, a widely anticipated decision that has not influenced the trade on the Forex.
Unfortunately, the EUR/USD also seems to ignore the outcome of the elections that took place this weekend in Spain, so it announces a period of political instability in the iberian peninsula.
From a graphical point of view, the underlying trend remains sharply negative, and a return of the decline seems at this stage to be the most likely scenario, at least as long as the pair EUR/USD does not return to top of 1.12.
In the event of further losses this week, the first two media are important to monitor are 1.11 and 1.10. Let us also note that the bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has issued yesterday evening a note indicating a target to 1.10 on the EUR/USD pair in the short term.
The increase, the moving average 100 hours currently situated towards 1.1175 is the first critical resistance, before the psychological threshold of 1.12, and then 1,1230, 1, 1260-65, 1,13, 1,1330, 1,1360 and 1,14.
In regards to the news of the day, the economic calendar will be fairly light, with only consumer spending US the month of march.
It should be noted, however, that the rest of the week will be much more loaded, with the GDP in the Q1 of the Euro Area tomorrow, the Fed meeting on Wednesday evening, and the report to the NFP on Friday after-noon, to mention only the most important events.
Therefore, except surprises, a certain amount of wait-and-see is expected this Monday on the Euro-Dollar, before the most important events of the week.