EUR/USD: the Return of the drop is imminent on the Euro after a strong rebound early?

The decline may soon resume its rights

The Euro-us Dollar displayed significant increase throughout the morning, amplifying, largely a movement of the rebound that started after the low of 1.1270 last Friday.

The pair EUR/USD took advantage essentially of a generalized decline of the Dollar on Monday morning, the greenback correcting after significant gains last week, investors playing also the caution before a very busy week in the USA the macroeconomic point of view, including the Fed meeting on Wednesday.

It should be noted that this weakness in the Dollar has alluded to the potential impact bearish on the Euro that might have been of european statistics were disappointing released this morning, with a CPI revised down from 2% to 1.9% for the month of November, in annual data, and a trade balance for the month of November with a surplus of 12.5 billion EUR 14 billion EUR in advance.

This context european economic gradient (which is a continuation of the meeting of the ECB is dovish and the european PMI indexes disastrous last week), as well as the technical configuration of the pair EUR/USD tend to suggest that the decline will resume soon its rights on the european currency.

Technical factors still point to the downside

From a graphical point of view, one can indeed see that the pair arrives in an area of critical resistance, which already seems to be an obstacle. Around the resistance 1.1350, it is also the moving average 100 hours (1.1339), and the moving average 200 hours (1.1355), but also a line of downward trend visible since the summit last week.

In the short term, the odds seem so heavily skewed towards a return to the downside, and in this framework, the psychological threshold of 1.13 will be the first support to monitor, prior to 1.1265-70, and then 1.1215 (hollow annual).

A breakout confirmed above the moving average 200 hours to 1.1355 would clearly undermine the profile is bearish, but a return above 1.14 seems necessary to consider the possibility of a bullish trend.

Finally, it is recalled that the Dollar and therefore the pair EUR/USD also, may be influenced by the publication of the index, Empire State this afternoon at 14: 30.

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