EUR/USD: The pair decreased slightly, but its fate will depend on the Fed this Wednesday

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The pair EUR/USD has actively tested the resistance 1.1150-60 since yesterday afternoon, having managed to score a peak at 1.1162 this morning.

The Euro-Dollar has, however, been unable to confirm a break above this area, and statistics european then came accentuate the correction at 11am.

The CPI Core annual euro zone gdp to 0.9% for the preliminary data for the month of July, against 1% expected and 1.1% previously.

The preliminary GDP for Q2 released at the same time, matched the consensus, but also confirmed the weakness of european growth, with GDP up 0.2% quarter-over-quarter and 1.1% in annual data.

These figures seem therefore to have weighed on the european currency, but the decline remains for the moment limited.

In fact, the main events of the day will be expected later, including the ADP report (AP:ADP) on job creation, US to 14: 15, and especially the Fed meeting this evening, with the announcement of rates and the statement of the Fed to 20h, and then the press conference of Jerome Powell at 20: 30.

The market expects a large extent, a rate cut of 0.25%, but surprises are not excluded. The Fed could indeed provide a surprise hawkish rate cut by pointing out that there’s a good chance that this action remains isolated, just as it could offer a surprise dovish tone by committing to lower again rates in the near future, or worse, by lowering the rate of 0.50% today, an event that has a probability of more than 20% depending on the market.

In the first case, we should expect a decline in EUR/USD, while in the latter, the sanction that would be applied to the Dollar is expected to greatly benefit the pair.

From a graphical point of view, thresholds to monitor are 1.1150-60, 1.1190-1.12 and 1.1225 to the upside, while to the downside, the first support credible is located at 1.1100-15, an area in which the psychological threshold key 1.10 may be directly referred to.

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