The pressure remains broadly bearish on the EUR/USD pair, but the absence of new lows makes the graphics context is increasingly uncertain, so that a crucial week for the Euro announcement with the ECB meeting on Thursday.
The economic calendar is totally empty for this Monday has not helped the volatility of the EUR/USD in progress, with a range of only 20 pips since the re-opening of the forex yesterday evening, but it is also the perspective of the intervention from Mario Draghi that encourages investors not to over-commit one way or in another.
The fate of the Euro will largely depend on the ECB this week
The boss of the ECB might want according to some analysts, cementing its monetary policy dovish as long as possible before that Christine Lagarde to take over at the end of October.
Most economists are predicting a have modified the forward guidance for the meeting of Thursday, which will “prevent” the market of a rate cut for the next meeting in the month of September, but the details could change everything.
Draghi does it imply the possibility of further rate cuts after that which should take place in September? The boss of the ECB will, in fact, need to be particularly dovish to appease market expectations, while the perceived probability that the ECB may lower its rates in the month of July is non-negligible.
In other words, the ECB meeting on Thursday could ultimately represent a risk to the upside for the Euro, as the market expectations very high, imply a high risk that Draghi won lets the market rather than it nexcède expectations.
Thresholds to watch on EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, the first important barrier on EUR/USD is 1.1225-30, an area where there is currently the moving average 100 hours. Beyond that, 1.1240-50, which is where the moving average of 200 hours will be the next hurdle, before a higher resistance on 1.1280.
For the reduction, it will be recalled that the EUR/USD has rebounded to the approach of 1.12 several times in recent days, and this threshold is therefore considered as a key support whose fracture could lead to a rapid acceleration to the low annual 1.1106.