EUR/USD: The Euro remains on the defensive before ECB

© O Financista. EUR/USD on the defensive before ECB meeting

By David Wagner

After having started the day yesterday up in the face of a Dollar weakened by expectations of rate cuts from the Fed, the EUR/USD pair seems again dominated by sellers this morning (Thursday), while the ECB meeting could have a significant impact on the single currency.

Recall that the Euro-Dollar had peaked just above 1.13 yesterday, thanks to the ADP report (AP:ADP) employment US largely disappointing which had added pressure on the greenback.

The EUR/USD was not, however, managed to stay above 1.13, and then began to correct, the Dollar has benefited in the afternoon of the ISM services US higher expectations.

The ECB program this Thursday

Today, it is the ECB meeting that will be decisive for the fate of the Euro.

Investors are waiting for details on the operation TLTRO announced a few months ago, as well as the new forecasts from the ECB in terms of growth and inflation.

The odds to see the ECB surprise by his optimism are low, given the global risks that weigh on growth, and the ECB meeting today is, therefore, to be considered as a risk more bearish than bullish.

Outside of this statistic, we will also have some US data at 14: 30, with productivity quarterly and inscriptions weekly unemployment.

We will also keep an eye on the progress of the discussions between Italy and the EU, in the face of the threat of sanctions for the bad student of Europe in terms of debt and budget.

Technical Point and thresholds to monitor

From a graphical point of view, it should be noted that the break below the low of Tuesday, performed last night is a negative signal, but several other media are relatives of current priceswith the moving average 100 hours to 1.1218, the summit of the last week at 1.1215, the psychological threshold of 1.12, and the moving average 200 hours to 1.1191.

Under these thresholds, the possibility that the pair EUR/USD mark a short-term new lows annual 1.1106 will increase considerably.

In case of return of the increase, 1.1250, 1.1265 and 1.13 are the first areas of resistance to take into account.

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