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The EUR/USD pair is weakening on Friday, with a recent low of two weeks to 1.1255.
Recall that the Euro was affected this morning by the publication of orders to the German industry for the month of May, which proved to be especially disappointing, down -2.2% against -0.1% expected and +0.4% previously.
This adds to a bond market on which government bonds are still very low rates across Europe, which also maintains the single currency under pressure.
However, it is always the report to the NFP on job creation, US expected at 14: 30 that holds the key to the evolution of the pair EUR/USD today.
However, in all likelihood, and as highlighted in a previously published article, several clues incite anticipate a report NFP modest, or even poor.
If this is indeed the case, traders will interpret this publication as a final confirmation that the Fed will lower its rate at the end of the month, which could fare go up EUR/USD, although the mraché is already forecasting a probability of 100% that the Fed will reduce its key rate at the meeting of 31 July.
Conversely, a good surprise will no doubt help the Euro-Dollar to accentuate the fall posted since this morning.
If this is the case, the moving average 100 days currently at 1.1260 and tested this morning to be the first threshold key monitor. A break below this moving average would be a bearish signal significant.
This would allow to consider a continuation of the correction to 1.12, and then eventually to the hollow for the annual 1.1106.
In the event of a rebound, the first potential resistance will be the psychological threshold of 1.13, before 1.1350, which is also the 200-day moving average.