Already on a downward slope yesterday, the pair EUR/USD has sharply increased its fall on Tuesday, in the face of several economic indicators which penalise.
This morning, the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment German below expectations was the first statistic to weigh on the Euro, but the EUR/USD pair was then marked new lows in the face of retail sales US exceed expectations, which have strengthened the Dollar.
Retail sales are displayed in up 0.4% for the month of June, against 0.1% expected. The retail sales main have shown the same performance, at +0.4% versus +0.1% anticipated.
These figures on solids, which are in addition to other data éocnomiques US stronger than expected in recent weeks, should help to tamp down expectations of a rate cut from the Fed.
It is more or less guaranteed that the Fed will lower its rate by 0.25% at the end of the month, but most economic statistics US will prove to be solid, the higher the probability that the Fed lowers its rate to 0.50%, or that it then proceeds to further rate cuts before the end of the year will decrease.
In the case of the Euro-Dollar, this is a negative factor, and after several signals bearish today, the continuation of the decline remains the most likely scenario, in view of the next goals to be 1.12, 1.1180, 1.1150 and 1.1106, the low of this year.
The increase, it would be necessary that the EUR/USD returned to at least 1.1250 to weaken the negative bias.