The Euro-Dollar remains under pressure this Tuesday, after having broken below the psychological threshold of 1.13 and marked a low of 1.1275 during the night.
Recall that since the beginning of the week, the dominant factor in the evolution of the EUR/USD is the strengthening of the Dollar, in the face of more reassuring information.
Last Saturday, the positive outcome of the meeting Trump-Xi has allowed you to see a de-escalation of trade conflict between the two largest economies of the planet.
In the end, the accumulation of good news could start to weaken the market certainty that the Fed will lower rates at the end of the month, a reflection that shines on the Dollar.
The next event that would sharpen the market’s expectations in terms of the decline rate of the Fred will be the ADP report (AP:ADP) on Wednesday, and the ISM services, which will be released on the same day. But it is especially the report report NFP on Friday that could have a decisive influence on the rate expectations.
A good surprise on this key statistic got even a little more likely see the Fed lower its rates in the month of July, which would support the Dollar.
In anticipation of these publications potentially significant, a phase of temporary consolidation around 1.13 could be observed, the EUR/USD pair bouncing in the direction of this threshold in the early european session on Tuesday.
From a technical point of view, the break below the moving average 200 hours yesterday, and then under the psychological threshold of 1.13 this morning are two signals downside important.
It should also be noted that the moving average 100 hours seems about to cross under the moving average 200 hours, which would be a new negative signal if it is confirmed.
Finally, as regards the thresholds to watch for include materials of 1.1275, 1.1250, 1.12 and 1.1180, and the resistance of 1.13, 1.1315, 1.1350 and the area around 1.14.