This technological revolution of urban mobility needs to get cities to rethink.
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Arcadis, the leading company in the consulting and engineering design, was presented a few days ago, on the occasion of his lecture ” autonomous Vehicles, what impact for the Greater Paris “, the results of its study Driverless Future: A Roadmap for City Leaders. While many focus on the technology of autonomous vehicles and safety issues, regulatory or insurance, this study, co-directed by Arcadis, HR&A and Sam Schwartz, cleared the specific question of the impact of autonomous vehicles on mobility and therefore on the cities.
The study of Arcadis, HR&A and Sam Schwartz is based on a detailed analysis of the dynamics of mobility with the introduction of autonomous vehicles in three major u.s. cities : New York, Los Angeles and Dallas. It leads to a very different view of the dynamics in the three cities, which gives three scenarios very different from adoption possible. Paris is very different to that of the three cities, but it is nevertheless possible to extrapolate the essential mechanisms.
With the introduction of autonomous vehicles, the use of systems of car-sharing will become an alternative economically and practically viable in the possession of a car, and this will lead many people to switch from car ownership in favor of the other mobility options available. The modeling of economic choice leads to the estimate that the impact on the ownership of vehicles could range from a decrease of 46% to 60% in New York, 36 to 44% in Los Angeles and 21 to 31% in Dallas.
Paris : Less private vehicles, more vehicles sharing and a new urban landscape
For Paris, this could represent a reduction of half of the passenger vehicle fleet, which is nearly 2.5 million individual cars private less on the roads of the Grand Paris. This change would be accompanied by a massive increase of vehicles in the shared type, location of cars, Uber or otherwise, and a continuation of the diversification of general forms of mobility borrowed. This will be a real earthquake for the city, its infrastructure and the dynamics that will govern its urban future.
A pricing policy networks, taking into account the new challenges of mobility.
These far-reaching changes in mobility practices will change including the needs, and the flows on the public transport and road networks, access policies and network pricing structures, parking needs, the possibilities of mobility inclusive for whole segments of the population and the nature of the public space.
The contribution of a paradigm of this study is the idea that we can no longer think in terms septate mobility. The different forms of mobility are complementary and enchevêtreront on the same trip. What is already there for a growing but still quite limited (a trip on the RER with a Vélib for the last kilometer, for example) will become more common. In the end, this will produce a single network, fully multi-modal, the scale of the metropolis. This change of paradigm, totally alters how cities need to think about their mobility and develop their policies, particularly in the areas of pricing and investment in urban areas.
This development has fundamental implications in the field of urban policy. The essential question is how to steer innovation so that it is to benefit, not the detriment, of the common interest, for example by phasing out surface parking in the city, by limiting the number of vehicles that are empty in the public space and ensuring equitable and inclusive access to mobility for all. Arcadis believes that it is imperative that the public authorities, and in particular the governance bodies urban local take these issues very quickly in order to put in place a new set of regulations before the arrival of the technological revolution, and not after, seeking to reframe the initiatives taken by the private operators.
“Our study highlights that there are many positive effects to be expected of autonomous vehicles, but that there are also risks and negative effects in terms of urban management. It is essential to understand the mechanisms for understanding this set of effects “, leave it to Stéphane Kirkland and Nicolas Boffi, all two City Executives to Paris at Arcadis. “Only the cities that have understood and anticipated challenges in the transition to autonomous vehicles will take full advantage of it ; the other could suffer with the loss of quality of life, economic competitiveness, and even environmental sustainability. ”
Arcadis is the global leader in design and consulting of the natural environment and built. Our in-depth knowledge of the market, as well as our services of design, consultancy, engineering, project management and management, allow us to work in partnership with our customers to provide them with exceptional results and long-lasting. We are 27 000 people in more than 70 countries and generate 3.3 billion euros in turnover. We support the program, UN-Habitat, through our knowledge and expertise to improve the quality of life in cities in significant growth, anywhere on the planet. www.arcadis.com
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