A slow and timid recovery. While the price of crude oil are at their highest level for four years, exporting countries in sub-saharan Africa should see growth accelerate… a little bit. According to the world Bank, which published on Wednesday 3 October, its latest forecasts, the region will see its gross domestic product (GDP) to rise by 2.7 % in 2018, after 2.3% in 2017. A ” modest recovery “, which reflects ” the rise in oil prices “, even if ” the road ahead is strewn with pitfalls “, considers the institution located in Washington, dc.
Boosted by the tensions between the United States and Iran, a barrel of brent of the North sea, an international standard, reached almost us $ 85 (€74), Friday, 5 October. “It is a breath of fresh air for amazing countries such as Angola, Nigeria or the Republic of the Congo, which has accumulated massive imbalances since the end of 2014,” said Victor Lopes, economist at Standard Chartered.
“Oil at $ 85 barrel. The policy of Trump on Iran is in the process of restoring its greatness in Nigeria [making Nigeria great again], ” and exclaimed, on Twitter, Jubril Kareem, director of energy research at Ecobank. In fact, the giant of West Africa, the main oil producer of the continent, is a mono-exporter. The black gold accounts for more than 90% of its sales abroad and two-thirds of its budget revenue. For him, as for all countries of the region-oil exporters, the rise in current plays favourably on the trade balance and generates a surplus of income.
A gain welcome, but insufficient to really restart the machine, as the crisis caused by the precipitous drop in prices between 2014 and 2016 (– 75 %) has left traces. The States have had to cut back in public investment and the industry collapsed. In the medium term,…