Automation : “Employment transformed is not to say jobs threatened “

Seen incidentally. The robots, help systems, learning and artificial intelligence will fundamentally change the nature of the work. All the world knows, or believes to know.

More precisely, two ideas for a show about robots, the first being that ever as many jobs have been threatened. We can read in the media of titles, such as ” Forrester predicts that the automation associated with the artificial intelligence will remove 9% of all jobs in the United States in 2018 “, or even ” McKinsey : by 2030, a third of american workers could find themselves unemployed because of automation “.

This kind of article gives the impression that the technical progress and job destruction is accelerating dramatically. But there is nothing to confirm this trend. In reality, the overall productivity of factors, the best indicator of the rate of technical progress, has remained stagnant since 2005 in the United States and in the developed countries.

Structure of employment

As the economist Timothy Taylor, of Stanford university, has recently pointed out, the rate of change of the structure of employment (defined as the difference between the number of jobs created in expanding sectors and the number of jobs in sectors in decline, reported to the total number at the beginning of the reporting period) has been declining since the 1980s. This is not to say that the structure of employment does not change (link to PDF in English), but this calls into question the idea that the pace of change is accelerating.

On the Amazon site, you can contact Alexa, a voice assistant automatic

The second idea to which almost everyone adheres to : the jobs that were not threatened in the past are today. There was a time where it said that robots would replace workers engaged in repetitive tasks, but not the highly…

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