President Donald Trump at the White House on July 5, 2018 (Photo Brendan Smialowski. AFP)
Despite the warnings scare and the nervousness of the markets, the United States and China will enter a walk-in in the trade war with the entry into force Friday, customs fees reciprocal in the tens of billions of dollars of goods.
The us tariff of 25% on $ 34 billion of chinese imports will hit 818 products including cars, aircraft components or hard drives of computers while sparing property popular as the mobile phones or the televisions. They will be effective Thursday midnight (04: 00 GMT), confirmed on Thursday president Donald Trump at journalists.
Immediately after, the customs duties chinese on an equivalent amount of u.s. imports will be applied. They will affect agricultural products including soy, is highly dependent on the chinese market, the automobile sector or of the products of the sea like lobsters.
“China will not surrender to threat or blackmail,” assured Thursday in Beijing, the spokesman of the ministry of Commerce of china, Gao Feng.
In total, $ 50 billion of chinese imports annual that will be affected by the us measures designed to compensate for the administration’s Trump considers to be the “theft” of intellectual property and technology.
The second batch of $ 16 billion of chinese imports, which is currently the subject of a further review by the Trade representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer, will come soon into force, also said Donald Trump, referring to “in two weeks”.
Beijing, which has decided to replicate the same, is also expected to hit a total of 50 billion dollars of u.s. imports, with a first list showing about $ 34 billion of products.
The first two economic powers of the world should not stay there because Donald Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer “to identify $ 200 billion in chinese assets with a view to additional taxes of 10%”.
And the american president says he is ready to taxing $ 200 billion of additional goods (“if China increases its tariffs” in response.
These measures could, therefore, bring to 450 billion in the value of chinese goods taxed, the vast majority of imports from the asian giant (505,6 billion in 2017).
Experts have been warning for months against the potential damage of such an encounter business, not only the u.s. economy but also on the global economy.
– Investment in game –
The american companies have already indicated that the u.s. central Bank (Fed) that they felt the impact already, with a rise in price as well as “the reduction or deferral of projects, investment spending due to uncertainties surrounding the commercial policy”, stressed on Thursday the u.s. central Bank in the minutes of its last meeting in June.
In an analysis titled “the wrong approach”, the american Chamber of commerce has estimated “about 75 billions of dollars” in the amount of u.s. exports affected by the retaliatory measures of trading partners of the United States.
It refers in particular to six States (Alabama, Michigan, Pennsylvania, south Carolina, Texas and Wisconsin) are particularly affected, which were all in favour of Donald Trump during the last presidential election in 2016.
These warnings suggest though of marble, the american president, who has once again swept the arguments Tuesday in a tweet.
“The economy is probably much better than in the past, before we will settle the problem of the agreements, unfair trade concluded with each country,” he estimated. “A majority of countries is agreement on the fact that they need to change, but nobody has ever asked for”, he added.
The day before, the u.s. Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross, said that the forecasts of a slowdown to come from the growth of the american economy were “premature and probably inaccurate”.
“The direct effects of the customs taxes, imposed till now, will not fundamentally change the macroeconomic situation us,” said Robert Palombi, an analyst with S&P’s Global Ratings.
“However, the escalation of trade tensions between the two largest economies could have far-reaching ramifications the real world and sow the seeds of a notable slowdown of economic growth,” he added.
On Thursday, the price of soybeans has hit the lowest level in nine years in Chicago a few hours before the announcements expected in the United States and China.