The OMXS30 last week received short term sell signals when, among other things, the guides at about 1645, and about 1638 was broken. The index has, however, now rekylerat upward, and the long trend is still upward. But at the decline stage the level of trading activity which sends out a powerful warning about the increased risk that the long the trend may be challenged seriously. Would OMXS30 however, the break above resistance at about 1657 in a relatively high volume of trading obtained new strong buy signals. But would the stock market start to go down under continued high trade received important sell signals on the supports at about 1600-1604, about 1585, and approximately 1544 broken.
The stockholm stock exchange, went last week down in a both increased trading activity and volatility. Storbolagsindexet OMXS30 was down 1.1 per cent and closed the week at 1629,21. In the years hence, the index has gone up by 7.4 per cent. And with 10.7 per cent if you include secluded dividends.
What created the turmoil on world financial markets was the president Trumps the rapidly growing political problem. It is reported that he tried to persuade the fired FBI director James Comey to close down the investigation of former national security advisor, Michael Flynn, and that he leaked top-secret information to the Russian minister of foreign affairs. In addition, a study on the links between his presidential campaign and Russia.
Get the OMXS30 analysis automatically to your e-mail every week!
All this makes that the president is likely to have great difficulty to get through their programs with tax cuts, investments in infrastructure and other things. It does not like the stock exchange. The rise in prices since november has, right or wrong, to a large extent been attributed to him and his skattesänkningsprogram. It may even be the case that you are trying to dismiss him. Which, however, today seems quite remote. But it reminds a little bit of Watergatekrisen in the 70’s. Has Trump recorded talks with James Comey? And he will in that case be forced to report them?
But Trump is the master at the media. It would not surprise if he soon will with the new move to try to get these scandals to fade and be forgotten. Continuation learn follow…
But anyway with this. The OMXS30 was in all cases the sell signals when the guides about 1645 , about 1638, and approximately 1622 was broken. The index was then down and tested the support at around 1603-1604, which, however, was.
Also, the stochastic indicator gave a sellindication from an overbought position.
These sell signals, however, is mainly of short-term interest. The long trend is still intact. The OMXS30 is also still a good bit above its 200-day medeltalskurva which, moreover, is rising. And with the shorter 20-day medeltalskurvan is still uppåtlutad.
However, is the OMXS30 is now under the 20-day medeltalskurvan which is annoying for those who want to build a positive view of the börsläget.
Another aggravating circumstance is that the börsomsättningen was very high the day of the OMXS30 was down and tested support at around 1603-1604. It is not good. Thus säljtrycket increases in the fall and the purchase page seems to have lost its advantage. Unfortunately, it is an indication that declines with time is liable to continue.
If you have pink glasses on and try to interpret everything in the positive direction, one could argue that it was a so-called wash-out sales. In this context, one can describe it as a desperate sell-off of scared investors who sold out everything they can possibly sell. This occurs when in the end of a decline. After that, is there not as much potential sellers left. And the stock exchange has in principle only one direction to go. Namely, upwards.
Which interpretation is right , we let the time being to be unsaid. But the situation has now become considerably more complicated than in the past and the level of risk has therefore increased. So ”be careful out there”.
You can also see this decline in high trading activity as: ”A time is no time. But two times is a gong-gong.”
So now what we do not want to see is more nedgångsdagar with a relatively high trading volume, type over 20 billion per day. Or to the OMXS30 establishes itself in the support at about 1603-1604.
Sen is also 1600 is a smooth and börspsykologiskt important level. It is often so that even indexnivåer on välbevakade stock indexes will be extra important decision points for many investors. So rather, you can regard the support area around 1600-1604 as extra important to be aware of.
What is then necessary to remove the uncertainty as sell signals and the subsequent fall in the stock markets with the high stock market activity caused? It is required that the stock market starts to go up with the same type of high börsaktivitet. Preferably at least 20 billion per day during the uppgångsdagarna. Or to the OMXS30 get new strong buy signals through to establish itself above the resistance at about 1657.
Would, however, OMXS30 go up in a relatively low trading session, without break of 1657 the resistance, the försiktige investor förslagvis choose to sell parts of their share – and indexinnehav. Becomes handelsvolymsambanden on the new, more clearly positive, or if the OMXS30 establishes itself over the 1657 can then gradually increase the engagmanget again.
Would OMXS30 establish themselves in the support area at ca 1600-1604, especially if it would take place in a relatively high trading activity, obtained new strong sell signals. The OMXS30 has then in and for themselves in the long term key support levels at about 1585, where the upward trend line in the weekly chart below is located, and at about 1544. But the riskaverte investor should in all cases consider the draw-down their risk exposure significantly.
Cautious investors may also sit for the old börsordspråket ”Sell in may and stay away”. The historic börsmedelavkastningen between may and October is namely, according to a variety of studies to be very low. The period between november and april is the better. But this is just an average measured over a number of years. Individual years can the period of may-October can be very profitable indeed. But it is in the clear minority of cases.
Short-term-oriented actors can, however, act upon the buy signal obtained reaches the OMXS30 went over the resistors at about 1622 and about 1629. Aim for a rise to resistance at about 1638-1640 in the first place and up to motståndsområdet at about 1655-1657 in the other hand.
Trade, however, happy with a little less handelspostioner than usual. For handelsvolymsambanden have in recent days turned to the more negative relationship, which increased the risk of future downturns. Way förslagvis a stop loss just below the support at about 1629 or under it at about 1622.
Would OMXS30 go under the support at about 1622; instead, betting on a fall to, first and foremost, the support area at ca 1600-1604. Stop loss example, if the index goes over 1622-1624.
Acting with long-term strategies, it may now be time to get a little careful. The long trends point still upwards but handelsvolymsambanden has become more uncertain. If you want to take low risk, it may be time to sell off parts of the holdings. Especially if this can be done at the gains.
Would the OMXS30 on the new start to go down in a relatively high trading activity, we recommend that you a little more firmly also sell long-term holdings. If you are more risk averse can wait for sales so long as the intensities are at about 1585 or about 1544 keeps.
However, should the OMXS30 start to go up in greater trading activity than in the last downturn so handelsvolymsambanden positive again. The risk level can then be downgraded. In particular, if the resistance on the OMXS30 at about 1657 broken during the rising trading activity can act as it to find good opportunities to reach the old peaks around about 1720.