After a bearish first part of the day, the EUR/USD rebounded sharply on Tuesday, climbing to $100.00. a summit at 1.0770, after a low near 1.07 earlier in the day.
Regarding the reasons for the rebound, we note that it occurred following a decline in the price. The release of information from Reuters according to which the ECB's new 2024 inflation forecast, which will be unveiled at at Thursday's meeting, will be higher than 3%, compared to 3% previously, suggesting that the central bank will decide to raise its key rate once again tomorrow.
As for this Wednesday, the Forex's attention will be mainly focused on US inflation data for the month of August, with the main CPI expected to rise to 20%. 3.6% compared to 3.2% previously, while the CPI Core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to decline to 4.3%, compared to 4.7% previously.
However, this data could have a strong impact on the Dollar, and therefore the EUR/USD. Indeed, if it is almost certain that the Fed will not raise its rates during its meeting next week, there is uncertainty regarding the following meeting at the beginning of November, a significant proportion of the market predicting that the Fed will resume raising rates at a higher rate. This moment.
As a result, the US CPI expected today could serve as an arbiter, knowing that figures higher than expected would argue in favor of more rate hikes.
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Regarding the ECB meeting on Thursday, yesterday's Reuters information has already been confirmed. trained a bullish reaction from the EUR/USD, which implies that its upside potential in the event of a rate increase is already there. started. This also means that the absence of a rate hike could have a more pronounced bearish impact.
Technical thresholds at to watch on EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, we will note that the rebound of the Euro Dollar yesterday was not a result of the rebound of the Euro Dollar yesterday. sufficient to cancel out the underlying negative bias, which does not exclude a return of the decline. In this case, the area of 1.0680/1.07 will be the first key support. à to watch. Further down, it is then the May trough at 1.0635 and the threshold of 1.06 which will be the next objectives.
If the EUR/USD begins a rebound, it is the psychological threshold of 1.08 and the 200-day MA at 1.0826 which will be the first obstacles before the 100-day MA, which currently merges with the psychological threshold of 1.09.
The EUR/USD is reluctant to rebound, the forex cautious before the US CPI and the BCE