After making some progress facing Wednesday night's Fed meeting, EUR/USD retreated slightly; facing the ECB meeting on Thursday, reversing the gains of the day before and confirming the uncertain trend that the currency pair has been following for more than two weeks.
Recall that the ECB announced; a rate hike of 25 basis points, the scenario that was the most anticipated. However, investors still approached the ECB meeting taking into account a probability significant that the ECB decides to act more decisively and hike rates by 50 basis points. for you the best brokers to trade Forex. Discover the list.
Thus, the fact that the central bank limits itself to 25 basis points was a surprise in the eyes of some, which explains the bearish reaction of the Euro Dollar vis-à-vis; the event.
Turning to Thursday, it's April's NFP US jobs report that will take center stage. Note that US employment is monitored; closely by the Fed, because a market solid work is likely to fuel inflation.
Thus, an NFP report that surprises positively this Friday could lead the market to anticipate with less certainty a pause in the Fed's rate hike in June. However, it would not take much for that, knowing that at the time of writing this article, the Investing.com rate barometer testifies to a probability. very high of almost 96% that the Fed will not raise its rates next month.
Find all the important statistics for EUR/USD, the pre and Consensus Views and Real-Time Earnings on the Investing.com Economic Calendar watch on EUR/USD
From a graphical point of view, the EUR/USD trend visible on the daily chart remains uncertain.
The previous 2023 high of 1.1095 and the psychological threshold of 1.11 indeed still form an immediate resistance for EUR/USD.
À On the downside, 1.10 is more pivotal than support, with first chart support at 1.09/1.0920 area. Below this threshold, the area formed by the 50- and 100-day moving averages at 1.0830 and 1.0775, where is also the long-term bullish trend line visible since the end of September 2022, will be the next important support.
Lower, we can consider that the underlying trend of the Euro Dollar returned to the downside, and 1.07 will be the first potential short target.
EUR/USD: Neither the Fed nor the ECB cleared the trend, will the NFP be able to?